Preseason Rankings
Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#120
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.5#70
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#139
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#110
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 1.0% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.6% 18.2% 9.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.4% 3.6% 0.9%
Average Seed 11.9 11.6 12.5
.500 or above 72.2% 82.0% 58.8%
.500 or above in Conference 71.5% 77.9% 62.8%
Conference Champion 15.9% 19.4% 11.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 2.4% 4.7%
First Four1.2% 1.7% 0.6%
First Round14.0% 17.3% 9.5%
Second Round3.4% 4.5% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.2% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Away) - 57.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 37 - 59 - 11
Quad 49 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 182   @ Evansville W 75-73 58%    
  Nov 13, 2019 131   @ Illinois-Chicago L 75-77 44%    
  Nov 17, 2019 158   Indiana St. W 77-74 60%    
  Nov 20, 2019 133   Northern Kentucky W 76-72 66%    
  Nov 23, 2019 337   Howard W 88-70 95%    
  Nov 26, 2019 283   Western Illinois W 79-66 88%    
  Dec 03, 2019 109   Loyola Chicago W 66-64 59%    
  Dec 07, 2019 253   IUPUI W 80-69 83%    
  Dec 18, 2019 75   @ Georgia Tech L 68-75 28%    
  Dec 22, 2019 44   Washington L 67-74 27%    
  Jan 03, 2020 112   Toledo W 74-71 58%    
  Jan 07, 2020 104   Buffalo W 82-80 57%    
  Jan 10, 2020 132   @ Akron L 68-70 45%    
  Jan 14, 2020 222   @ Eastern Michigan W 68-64 62%    
  Jan 18, 2020 150   Miami (OH) W 74-69 67%    
  Jan 25, 2020 154   @ Central Michigan L 80-81 49%    
  Jan 28, 2020 108   @ Bowling Green L 75-79 38%    
  Feb 01, 2020 217   Ohio W 79-70 78%    
  Feb 04, 2020 129   @ Kent St. L 73-75 45%    
  Feb 08, 2020 231   @ Western Michigan W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 11, 2020 147   Northern Illinois W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 15, 2020 108   Bowling Green W 78-76 57%    
  Feb 18, 2020 104   @ Buffalo L 79-83 37%    
  Feb 22, 2020 222   Eastern Michigan W 71-61 78%    
  Feb 25, 2020 231   Western Michigan W 80-70 80%    
  Feb 29, 2020 112   @ Toledo L 71-74 39%    
  Mar 03, 2020 154   Central Michigan W 83-77 67%    
  Mar 06, 2020 147   @ Northern Illinois L 72-73 48%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 2.3 4.1 4.1 2.9 1.5 0.5 15.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 3.3 4.9 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.6 4.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.6 4.6 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 4.4 2.4 0.2 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 3.7 2.5 0.2 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.4 0.5 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.2 5.4 7.3 8.6 10.3 11.5 11.5 10.5 9.8 7.6 5.1 3.1 1.5 0.5 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.5% 1.5    1.5 0.0
16-2 95.0% 2.9    2.6 0.3 0.0
15-3 79.7% 4.1    2.9 1.1 0.1
14-4 53.8% 4.1    1.9 1.7 0.4 0.0
13-5 23.6% 2.3    0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.9% 15.9 10.1 4.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 95.5% 50.7% 44.8% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.8%
17-1 1.5% 79.2% 51.2% 28.0% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 57.3%
16-2 3.1% 59.1% 40.9% 18.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 30.9%
15-3 5.1% 44.5% 33.9% 10.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.8 16.0%
14-4 7.6% 29.9% 26.2% 3.7% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.4 5.0%
13-5 9.8% 22.2% 21.1% 1.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 7.6 1.4%
12-6 10.5% 15.7% 15.6% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 8.9 0.1%
11-7 11.5% 10.6% 10.5% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 10.3 0.0%
10-8 11.5% 6.5% 6.5% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 10.8
9-9 10.3% 4.5% 4.5% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.9
8-10 8.6% 2.3% 2.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.4
7-11 7.3% 1.4% 1.4% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1
6-12 5.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3
5-13 3.2% 0.4% 0.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
4-14 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
3-15 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.6% 12.5% 2.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.9 4.2 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.2 85.4 2.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.0 12.1 9.1 57.6 15.2 3.0 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 5.2 4.4 31.1 2.2 62.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 4.4 23.7 23.7 49.2 3.4